COP29 — the light and the shadow

Picture of M.A. Martin Leon

M.A. Martin Leon

COP, which stands for ‘Conference of the Parties’, brings together representatives of the countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is the most important international meeting on how to tackle climate change.

COP29 took place this year in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11th-22nd November. The choice of host had created controversy early on, as Azerbaijan has big plans to expand gas and oil production, not to mention their poor human rights record.

Leaders gathered from everywhere in the world, but there were some important exceptions including Xi Jinping (China), Joe Biden (U.S.), Ursula von der Leyen (EU) and Narendra Modi (India). Many point out that no leader attended with climate change as their number one priority.

The re-election of Donald Trump, a known climate change skeptic, also threw a shadow on proceedings as any commitments adopted by the U.S.’s current representatives are unlikely to be fulfilled by the new government of the world’s biggest CO2 emitter.

This year’s focus was around financing. As part of the UNFCC agreement, countries have committed to formulating a funding target to help developing nations cut emissions and adapt to the worst impacts of climate change. African countries and small island states were hoping to see climate finance reach over a $1tn a year by 2030. 

Though a last minute deal was reached agreeing to $300bn annually by 2035 (trebling the current $100bn), the final number stayed well under the target that some say is necessary to stay within 1.5C of global warming.

There was some advancement on who will pay towards these targets. Until now, countries like China and the Gulf States have been classified as developing economies and have been exempt from contributing. The EU and other wealthy countries argued that this had to change to make the process realistic and fair. Traditional donors will now be joined by big emitters to help fund the transition.

Disappointingly, no further language was agreed on the phase-out of fossil fuels despite the signs that 2024 looks to be another record-breaking year for global temperatures, increasing the likelihood of catastrophes like the supercharged hurricanes Helene and Milton and the deadly recent floods in Spain that killed more than 200 people.

On a more positive note, there was progress in operationalising carbon markets as countries finalised some missing pieces of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. These are essential elements to create the $1.3tn of finance for developing countries set out in the COP29 deal.

Additionally we saw some aggressive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced. Keir Starmer came to the COP with a UK target for 2035 — 81% emissions reductions — and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president and the host of next year’s COP, also pledged new NDCs for Brazil.

Lastly, there was optimism around the clean energy transition which is touted as ‘unstoppable’ as economic prosperity and tackling the climate crisis now point in the same direction.

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